tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27932062.post4022332677845613794..comments2023-10-10T15:39:35.168+00:00Comments on Centre for European Reform: Vorsprung durch Grexit?Centre for European Reformhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06815454225955436329noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27932062.post-16355871298496631372015-04-23T17:17:58.333+00:002015-04-23T17:17:58.333+00:00My feeling is that the Greek government does every...My feeling is that the Greek government does everything leading to Grexit even if other member countries try the best to keep them in. The approximation to Russia (and China) is a failure, and even if Russia would finance Greece this would only weaken both countries. The US has always seen the EU as a strategic asset, sometimes forgetting that this would no longer be the case if the EU as a whole fails. Finland, the Baltic States, Poland, Sweden and the Netherlands are strategically more important than Greece, not to mspeak of Germany. To press too hard for Greece winning a chicken game would explode the Norther rim of the EU (see the last Finnish elections) - I would even not exclude a strong anti-EU turn in Germany comparable to the British position of the actual Tory government. This is also the bigger picture. The whole process of Grexit may indeed take enough time to give the Greek people a chance to decide themselves if they want to continue with a government that leads them into troubled waters. The description of the Greek situation is somewhat skewed: it is true that many people suffer under a deep depression, but before that the Greek people had accumulated the highestr rate of increase of wages in the Eurozone over 30%. If this increase payed by debt and not reflecting an increase in productivity is corrected by the markets - this can never be avoided. The problem is that the cost of this correction is mainly put on those who cannot defend themselves. But to say it is only banks that are saved is wrong. The banks (often recklessly) financed excessive wage increases for all Greeks - so if anybody is to blame it is banks and those who benefitted from this unreal economy together.<br />It is also not true that the opinion that austerity was overdone is widespread. It is widespread between those who held this opinion from the start, but have no recipee how to get the markets to continue to finance Greece for sustainable interest rates. <br />Berlin does NOT play the decisive role in the crisis management, but the countries who are grown up enough to handle their own rescue - like Spain that did the homework as a sovereign country. This is a difficult way - and simplistic gurus from Krugman to Podemos would criticise this but it works. If the people elect a government that does it in a different way and fails this has all democratic legitimation, but this includes that the people have to bear the consequences of a failing policy as well.<br />I am convinced that Greece has fallen so far outside of the European way to make the economy work that a Grexit would really be the best way to rescue the country (in a way Argentina made it, first with success then falling back into the old habits) - and if Greece keeps the old habits it should also leave the EU.<br />Georg BoomgaardenGeorg Boomgaardennoreply@blogger.com